By Jason Mannet

AMOC collapse would bring severe global climate repercussions, with Europe bearing the brunt of the consequences.

Scientists have warned that the dangers of the collapse of a key Atlantic Ocean current that helps regulate the Earth's climate have been "greatly underestimated".

In an open letter published earlier this week, 44 leading climate scientists from 15 countries said that the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) would have devastating and irreversible impacts. They write that the risks require urgent action from policymakers.

The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report says there is "medium confidence" that the AMOC will not collapse abruptly by 2100. But the group of experts says this is an underestimate.

"The purpose of this letter is to draw attention to the fact that only 'medium confidence' in the AMOC not collapsing is not reassuring, and clearly leaves open the possibility of an AMOC collapse during this century," they write in the open letter.

AMOC collapse would bring severe global climate repercussions, with Europe bearing the brunt of the consequences.

Scientists have warned that the dangers of the collapse of a key Atlantic Ocean current that helps regulate the Earth's climate have been "greatly underestimated".

In an open letter published earlier this week, 44 leading climate scientists from 15 countries said that the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) would have devastating and irreversible impacts. They write that the risks require urgent action from policymakers.

The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report says there is "medium confidence" that the AMOC will not collapse abruptly by 2100. But the group of experts says this is an underestimate.

"The purpose of this letter is to draw attention to the fact that only 'medium confidence' in the AMOC not collapsing is not reassuring, and clearly leaves open the possibility of an AMOC collapse during this century," they write in the open letter.

Even with a medium likelihood of occurrence, given that the outcome would be catastrophic and impacting the entire world for centuries to come, we believe more needs to be done to minimise this risk.

"Even with a medium likelihood of occurrence, given that the outcome would be catastrophic and impacting the entire world for centuries to come, we believe more needs to be done to minimise this risk."

The letter is addressed to the Nordic Council of Ministers, an intergovernmental forum which aims to promote cooperation among the Nordic countries. It urges policymakers to consider the risks posed by an AMOC collapse and put pressure on governments to stay within Paris Agreement targets.

What is the Atlantic Ocean Circulation?

The AMOC is an important system of ocean currents. It transports warm water, carbon and nutrients north via the Atlantic Ocean where the water cools and sinks into the deep.

This helps to distribute energy around the planet, moving heat through the ocean like a conveyor belt and regulating our climate.

Warm water - more salty due to evaporation - flows north on the surface of the ocean keeping Europe milder than it would otherwise be. When this water cools it sinks because its high salinity increases its density. It then flows back to the southern hemisphere along the bottom of the ocean.

But studies of past episodes of dramatic cooling in Europe over the last 100,000 years suggest melting ice sheets could weaken the AMOC due to changes in salinity and temperature.

Fresh water reduces the saltiness - and therefore the density of the water- on the surface of the ocean. This means less of the surface water sinks, potentially slowing the flow of the current. Are we heading for a catastrophic tipping point?

Some research has suggested that climate change may be slowing the flow of the current. One study from 2023, based on sea surface temperatures, suggested that a complete collapse could happen between 2025 and 2095.

There is huge uncertainty about how, when or even if this ‘tipping point’ could actually happen, however, and modelling the scenario is tricky. Most previous computer simulations that showed a collapse involved adding huge, unrealistic quantities of fresh water all at once.

In February this year, scientists from Utrecht University in the Netherlands used a complex climate model to simulate the collapse of the AMOC and discovered that it could be closer than previously thought.

The Dutch team used a supercomputer to carry out the most sophisticated modelling so far to look for warning signs of this tipping point. They added water gradually, finding that a slow decline could eventually lead to a sudden collapse over less than 100 years.

Previously, the paper published in February said, an AMOC tipping point was only a “theoretical concept” and its authors found that the rate at which the tipping of this vital current occurred in their modelling was "surprising".

But researchers had to run the simulation for more than 2,000 years to get this result and still added significantly more water than is currently entering the ocean as Greenland’s ice sheet melts.

"The research makes a convincing case that the AMOC is approaching a tipping point based on a robust, physically-based early warning indicator," said University of Exeter climate scientist Tim Lenton, who wasn't involved in the research, at the time.

"What it cannot (and does not) say is how close the tipping point is because it shows that there is insufficient data to make a statistically reliable estimate of that."

Lead author of the study, René van Westen also added that there wasn’t enough data to say anything definitive about a potential future AMOC collapse. More research is needed to work out a timeframe - including models that incorporate increasing levels of carbon dioxide and global warming.

“We can only say that we’re heading towards the tipping point and that AMOC tipping is possible.”

Some of the changes seen in the model before the collapse do, however, correspond with changes we’ve seen in the Atlantic Ocean in recent decades.

“When the AMOC loses stability, as we know from the available reconstructions, it is more likely that abrupt transitions may develop in the future,” van Westen added.

Lenton said that we have to "hope for the best but prepare for the worst" by investing in more research to improve the estimate of how close a tipping point is, assess the potential impacts and work out how we can manage and adapt to those impacts. What would a collapse of the ocean current mean for Europe?

If the AMOC collapses, previous research has shown the resulting climate impacts would be nearly irreversible in human timescales. It would mean severe global climate repercussions, with Europe bearing the brunt of the consequences.

Some parts of Europe could see temperatures plunge by up to 30C. On average, the model shows London cooling by 10C and Bergen by 15C.

The report’s authors say that “no realistic adaptation measures can deal with such rapid temperature changes”.

Temperatures in the southern hemisphere would rise with wet and dry seasons in the Amazon rainforest flipping.

Van Westen also explained earlier this year that it could mean less rainfall and a sea level rise of up to one metre in coastal areas of Europe.

"The overall picture that AMOC collapse would be catastrophic fits with my own group’s recent work showing that it would likely cause a widespread food and water security crisis," according to Lenton.

By April Lanux

The breach rate in the US was almost 40% higher than in 2023.

Millions of Americans fell victim to data breaches in 2024. 689 million records were leaked as the number of global data breaches was eight times higher than in 2023.

One of the best VPNs, Surfshark, has released research highlighting the steep rise in the occurrence of data breaches and which countries were impacted the most.

Surfshark defined a "breached or leaked email address used for online services as a separate user account, counting each instance as an individual breach."

Having your personal data breached is a horrible situation to experience and we will share what types of data were leaked and how to protect yourself going forward.

Global data breaches topped 5.5 billion in 2024, eight times higher than the 730 million recorded in 2023 – this equates to nearly 180 accounts being breached every second.

The US recorded 689 million breaches alone, up from the 496 million experienced in 2023. However, unlike in 2023, the US was only third highest on the list of affected countries, having been first in 2023.

Russia ranked second, with 921 million, and China topped the list with 939.5 million. The three countries combined accounted for nearly half of the world's data breaches (46%).

Although a trio of countries dropped places in the global rankings – the US, UK, and India – the total number of accounts breached in these countries rose. The US recorded a rise of 39%, while India saw five times as many accounts breached.

The UK saw a 14-fold surge in breaches, recording 57 million in 2024. Despite this, the country dropped to 9th in the global rankings, and this raises worrying questions over the state of global data security.

China saw the most dramatic increase, with 340 times more breaches, and this propelled it from 12th in 2023 to 1st in 2024. 939.5 million breaches were recorded, working out at nearly 1,800 breached accounts per minute.

This was not the only case of countries breaking into the top 10 for the first time, as Germany's almost 135 million breaches saw it rise from 16th in 2023 to 5th in 2024. With 49 million breaches, Poland was a new entry at number 10, having ranked 17th in 2023.

The density of data breaches is a strong indicator that a country's population may be more at risk of data breaches than others – even if its total number of breaches is smaller.

Europeans are clearly at the greatest risk, as 70% of the top 15 breached countries by density were located in the continent.

Russians are most at risk, with 6,365 data breaches occurring per 1,000 people. France came second with a recorded 2,260 breaches per 1,000 people, and the US third, with 2,031 per 1,000 people.

This is not the first time Russian data has been at high risk. Back in December 2024, the government disrupted the internet connection across several regions in an apparent test of its rumoured "sovereign internet."

The largest data breach in 2024 involved a collection of over 3 billion unique email addresses. This leak included the addresses of 790 million Russians and 310 million Americans, accounting for a majority of the two countries' total data breaches.

The scale of this leak resulted in a huge pool of potential targets for cybercriminals. But, according to Surfhark, the hacker behind the leak claimed all the emails were obtained by already publicly available information.

Commenting on the rise in data breaches, Emilija Kucinskaite, Senior Researcher at Surfshark, said: "As we reflect on 2024, the data breach landscape has dramatically shifted, with the number of compromised accounts increasing nearly eightfold compared to the previous year."

"This surge underscores the critical importance of effective cybersecurity practices. In an era where cyber threats are constantly evolving, taking proactive steps to protect your personal information is crucial. Individuals should use complex passwords, enable two-factor authentication, and stay informed about potential threats.

VPNs

Protecting yourself from data breaches shouldn't feel like a daunting task and there are numerous, and fairly simple, ways of doing it.

Using a VPN is an ideal first step. VPNs protect you online by routing your internet traffic through an encrypted tunnel, concealing it from third-parties and hackers. They mask your IP address, hiding the true origin of your browsing, and all the VPNs featured on our best VPN list don't store any of your personal information – following what is known as a no-logs policy.

Many VPNs include additional features such as ad-blockers, malware protection, and antivirus, meaning your defence is bolstered against the threats of hackers, cybercriminals, and phishing attempts.

VPNs aren't a silver bullet, and using one won't protect you from absolutely everything, but they do go a long way in protecting you and your data online.

Consent

Outside of VPNs, adopting good practices and behaviours can go a long way in protecting yourself online. Almost every website you visit will ask you if you want to "accept cookies," but what does this actually mean?

Cookies are how your information is tracked online, and this data is sold to advertisers who can then target you with personalised ads. You should always reject cookies where possible and try to read the policies you're consenting to.

More often than not, people are handing over their data without realising, and VPNs can't do a lot to protect you once you've consented. So read privacy policies and agreements, and understand what you're consenting to. If it seems excessive or you're not 100% comfortable, then don't consent and search for alternative sites or companies that adopt different data practices.

Phishing scams

Phishing scams are one of the most common threats posed by hackers and cybercriminals. Fake messages or emails, pretending to be from relatives, friends, or businesses, can trick us into clicking on malicious links and inadvertently handing over our data.

Fake online shops utilise similar URLs and websites to convince shoppers they're accessing the real site. Subtle changes can make the scams harder to spot but look out for typos, poor site quality, and too-good-to-be-true offers.

If you receive a link asking you to click on it, claim a prize, or submit your financial information, treat it with a high level of caution. Only click on links you're 100% sure are safe and always contact the organisation who appear to have sent the link to double check.

Strong passwords

123456 is the world's most popular password, and many of these popular passwords can be cracked in under a second. Strong passwords are the first line of defence against hackers and should be unique, and contain a mixture of letters, numbers, and symbols.

You should have a different, completely novel password for every account you have and although this may seem to adopt, the best password managers are here to help. They can generate and store complex and unique passwords, meaning all the hard work is done for you.

If you are the unfortunate victim of a data breach then don't panic. Once you've secured your cards and any other sensitive information, there are mitigating steps that can be taken.

ExpressVPN and NordVPN both offer a form of identity theft protection which can assist you in recovering stolen information. ExpressVPN's Identity Defender is included in its plans at no extra cost and includes ID Alerts, ID Theft Insurance, and data removal.

Its ID Alerts monitor the internet for your data, identifying and alerting you to any risks. If you are impacted, then its ID Theft Insurance provides up to $1 million in coverage for any expenses incurred during the breach.

Data removal services, like that included with Identity Defender or Incogni, search the web for data brokers who hold records of your data. They then submit removal requests to identified brokers on your behalf and request deletion of your data. This process is constantly repeated, ensuring your data is always protected.

NordVPN's NordProtect also offers identity theft protection, although it is only available with its top-tier Nord VPN Ultimate plan. Up to $1 million in cyber insurance is also offered, along with a dedicated case manager. There's cyber extortion protection of up to $100,000 and a 24/7 dark web monitoring service.

Alternative ID and Alternative Number

One way of not suffering a data breach is not putting your data out there at all, and this is where Surfshark's Alternative ID and Alternative Number come in.

Alternative ID is included with all Surfshark VPN plans and it generates you a completely new identity. You can create a fake name, age, email address, home address and more, allowing you to access and sign up for sites or newsletters without risking your real information.

You can delete your Alternative ID as many times and as often as you like, meaning you'll always be protected.

Alternative Number is a paid add-on and this generates you a dummy phone number, meaning you no longer have to give out your real phone number online.

It doesn't give you all the freedoms of a real number but you can receive texts and calls and, in some cases, reply to text messages. It works all over the world and is linked to your existing Alternative ID. For added security, you can delete and regenerate a new number, for free, every 30 days.