By Walter Denmon

Oil prices decreased on Monday as US tariffs raised demand concerns, while Russia-Ukraine peace efforts eased geopolitical risks.

The international benchmark Brent crude decreased by 0.37%, trading at $72.69 per barrel at 11.27 a.m. local time (0827 GMT), down from $72.96 at the close of the previous session.

The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined by 0.34%, settling at $69.53 per barrel, compared to its prior session close of $69.77.

A tense Oval Office meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday led to the cancellation of a planned joint press conference. The failure to finalize a rare earth agreement further deepened uncertainties in US-Ukraine relations.

However, Zelenskyy secured strong support from European leaders over the weekend at a UK-hosted Ukraine summit.

'There is clear support from Europe. Even greater unity, even stronger readiness for cooperation,' Zelenskyy said in a late video address on Sunday after a summit with European leaders in London.

Zelenskyy said there will be many other meetings and joint efforts in the coming days and weeks.

If peace talks gain momentum, easing geopolitical risks and balancing oversupply concerns are expected to keep oil prices under downward pressure.

Trump had also confirmed that tariffs on Mexico and Canada would take effect on March 4, with a 10% additional tariff on Chinese imports.

Analysts warn that these tariffs could slow economic growth, weaken energy demand, and fuel inflation, potentially triggering a trade war that might later push oil prices higher.

Meanwhile, rising economic activity in China, the world's largest crude oil importer, limits downward pressure on prices. Official data shows that China's manufacturing sector grew at its fastest pace in three months in February.

While experts note that China's PMI data suggests manufacturing had a solid start to 2025, a new wave of US tariffs on China may dampen the country's economic outlook.

Investors will closely monitor the country's annual parliamentary meeting on March 5 for economic stimulus measures.

By April Lanux

Following years of declines, the square footage of single-family home starts was up at the end of 2024. If mortgage rates ease, that trend could continue.

After a few years of shrinkflation in the new home sector, builders may be looking to upsize.

The median size of new single-family housing starts was 2,205 square feet in the final quarter of 2024, according to the latest U.S. Census data. That's the highest reading since mid-2023 and reverses a trend of declining square footage for new builds.

Average square footage also increased last quarter, jumping from the mid-2,300 range to 2,417 square feet. For the year, however, both the median (2,153) and average (2,370) square footage were down vs. 2023.

Betting on lower rates? The recent shift toward larger footprints could be tied to expectations that long-term rates will decline, noted Robert Dietz, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. While the direction of rates is now less certain given concerns about inflation, during the fourth quarter, builders were feeling more optimistic about their sales outlook for 2025.

Confidence and housing starts both declined in January, however, so it's too soon to know if home sizes will continue to increase or if it was a one-quarter blip.

Additionally, other factors, including housing affordability and construction costs, affect the new home market.

"Improvement for either of these factors would help increase home buyer purchasing power," Dietz said, adding that demographic changes are also driving demand for larger homes, with younger homebuyers seeking more space for growing families.

Size, prices shift in response to affordability issues: As new homes have gotten smaller, the price gap between new and existing homes has narrowed. In a separate report, NAHB found that new home median prices at the end of 2024 ($419,200) was nearly the same as existing home median prices ($410,100). During the second and third quarter of 2024, existing home prices were actually higher than new home prices, which hadn't happened since 1989.

That's because builders have more flexibility in how they respond to buyer demand and the broader economic climate, said Onnah Dereski, manager of economic services at the NAHB.

"Despite various challenges facing the industry, home builders are adapting to affordability challenges by selling smaller lots, constructing smaller homes, and offering incentives," Dereski said.

If home sizes continue to increase, it would be a sign that affordability is improving. Dietz noted that the square footage of new homes increased between 2009-2013 as the sector lost market share while the U.S. was recovering from the global financial meltdown, and again in 2021 as interest rates reached historic lows.