By April Lanux

Following years of declines, the square footage of single-family home starts was up at the end of 2024. If mortgage rates ease, that trend could continue.

After a few years of shrinkflation in the new home sector, builders may be looking to upsize.

The median size of new single-family housing starts was 2,205 square feet in the final quarter of 2024, according to the latest U.S. Census data. That's the highest reading since mid-2023 and reverses a trend of declining square footage for new builds.

Average square footage also increased last quarter, jumping from the mid-2,300 range to 2,417 square feet. For the year, however, both the median (2,153) and average (2,370) square footage were down vs. 2023.

Betting on lower rates? The recent shift toward larger footprints could be tied to expectations that long-term rates will decline, noted Robert Dietz, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. While the direction of rates is now less certain given concerns about inflation, during the fourth quarter, builders were feeling more optimistic about their sales outlook for 2025.

Confidence and housing starts both declined in January, however, so it's too soon to know if home sizes will continue to increase or if it was a one-quarter blip.

Additionally, other factors, including housing affordability and construction costs, affect the new home market.

"Improvement for either of these factors would help increase home buyer purchasing power," Dietz said, adding that demographic changes are also driving demand for larger homes, with younger homebuyers seeking more space for growing families.

Size, prices shift in response to affordability issues: As new homes have gotten smaller, the price gap between new and existing homes has narrowed. In a separate report, NAHB found that new home median prices at the end of 2024 ($419,200) was nearly the same as existing home median prices ($410,100). During the second and third quarter of 2024, existing home prices were actually higher than new home prices, which hadn't happened since 1989.

That's because builders have more flexibility in how they respond to buyer demand and the broader economic climate, said Onnah Dereski, manager of economic services at the NAHB.

"Despite various challenges facing the industry, home builders are adapting to affordability challenges by selling smaller lots, constructing smaller homes, and offering incentives," Dereski said.

If home sizes continue to increase, it would be a sign that affordability is improving. Dietz noted that the square footage of new homes increased between 2009-2013 as the sector lost market share while the U.S. was recovering from the global financial meltdown, and again in 2021 as interest rates reached historic lows.

By April Lanux

The Coast Guard is searching for a missing member of the crew of USCGC Waesche (WMSL-751) off the Pacific coast of Mexico near the border of Guatemala, USNI News learned.

The unidentified Coast Guardsman was initially reported missing while the Legend-class National Security Cutter was operating off the coast of Mexico.

“The Coast Guard is actively searching for a Coast Guard member that has been reported unaccounted for aboard the CGC Waesche while operating in the Eastern Pacific Ocean,” a service spokesperson told USNI News in a Wednesday statement. “Waesche, attached helicopter and [small unmanned aircraft systems] are currently conducting search patterns in the area. Additional Coast Guard and interagency search assets are being employed in this effort as well.”

The 4,700-ton cutter embarks with an MH-65E Dolphin helicopter and a small fixed-wing surveillance drone.

The statement did not include when the service member was discovered missing. A follow-up message and calls to the Coast Guard from USNI News asking about details about the timing of the search were not immediately returned.

As of Wednesday evening, Waesche was off the coast of Mexico near the border of Guatemala, according to its shipboard Automatic Identification System.

The Alameda-based cutter had recently made a port call to Puerto Quetzal, Guatemala, departing on Jan. 29. The cutter was last in the U.S. on Dec. 19, after departing San Diego, according to AIS data. The National Security Cutter USCGC Stone (WMSL-758) is also operating in the region.

Waesche returned from an extended 120-day patrol in the Pacific last year.

Last month, the Coast Guard announced a surge of forces following President Donald Trump’s executive order to protect U.S. borders.

“Per the President’s Executive Orders, I have directed my operational commanders to immediately surge assets—cutters, aircraft, boats and deployable specialized forces—to increase Coast Guard presence and focus,” reads a statement from Acting Coast Guard commandant Adm. Kevin Lunday.