Kenyan tea exporters fear Sudan blowback over RSF meeting
Kenya’s tea exporters voiced concern about potential blowback from Sudan, a key market for the country’s biggest commodity, after the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary held a symbolic political meeting in Nairobi this week.
The Sudanese government described Kenya’s hosting of RSF, the group which its forces have been fighting in a civil war since March 2023, as “an act of hostility against the Sudanese people,” vowing to take “all necessary measures to redress the balance.” On Thursday it recalled its ambassador to Kenya in protest.
In Kenya, the diplomatic spat has raised particular concern in the tea industry. Sudan ranks among the top 10 markets for Kenyan tea, Nairobi’s biggest export and leading foreign exchange earner. Sudan, at number seven, is the only African nation in a list topped by Pakistan, Egypt, and the UK. Several tea traders in the port city of Mombasa told Semafor that they feared a standoff could mean a decline in exports to Sudan, impacting trade that has already taken a major hit since the start of the war.
With tea exports accounting for around 23% of Kenya’s foreign exchange earnings, a significant decline could have a knock-on effect on the country’s economic growth. “Sudan is one of the biggest buyers of Kenyan tea, so a breakdown in relations could easily become an economic problem,” Ian Mwangi, a Nairobi-based trade consultant, told Semafor. He said it’s unlikely Sudan will impose import restrictions but thinks Kenya needs to protect the sector from any potential shock. “The war highlighted the need to unlock non-traditional markets, which the government has been working on…they’ll need to double down on this strategy to cushion the sector.”
The Kenyan trade ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The RSF had billed Tuesday’s event — attended by dozens of delegates including the group’s deputy commander, the brother of RSF leader Mohamed ‘Hemedti’ Dagalo — as a meeting to sign a charter establishing a parallel “government of peace and unity.” But the signing itself was called off at the last minute.
The meeting sparked sharp criticism domestically, with opposition Kenyan lawmakers warning of global repercussions. In January, the Biden administration accused the RSF of committing genocide and imposed sanctions on Hemedti.
But Kenya’s foreign affairs minister defended the decision to host RSF, saying it sought to provide “non-partisan platforms to conflict parties to seek resolution,” in line with its broader peacekeeping efforts. Kenya has traditionally been involved in regional peace missions and negotiations, including in DR Congo and South Sudan. Cameron Hudson, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, however, told Semafor that its perceived backing of the RSF “undermines Kenya’s claim as a regional peacemaker.”
The diplomatic dispute between Sudan and Kenya came as fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the RSF escalated in Sudan: At least 61,000 people have died so far, according to researchers, with a further 11.8 million displaced. The UN, which has described the war as the world’s “forgotten” conflict, this week asked donors for $6 million to ease the country’s growing hunger crisis.
Kenyan tea exports to Sudan fell by nearly 74% in the year to March 2024, pushing revenues down from $18.6 million the previous year to just $5 million. But in recent months Kenya had observed a “gradual recovery” in shipments to Sudan, according to the Tea Board of Kenya. Tea exports to Sudan in October last year stood at 1.6 million kg, compared to 1.3 million in the same month in 2023.
“We’re worried this turnaround in one of our key markets might not [now] be sustained,” John Mwashumbe, a trader at Mombasa-based trading firm Chai Poa, told Semafor, referring to the fallout over RSF.
Kenya’s hosting of the RSF at a government-owned convention centre is the latest in a series of moves that have heightened scrutiny of the country’s foreign policy. In November, Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye was abducted in Nairobi, sparking widespread outrage from rights groups and citizens of both countries. A month earlier, four Turkish nationals were abducted and later repatriated to Turkey, with the UN among other organizations raising concerns. The hosting of M23 rebel group leaders in Nairobi in 2023 for the formation of a political military alliance also led to tensions with DR Congo.
In this case, it is tea farmers and traders who could feel the pinch. Tea is integral to Kenya’s economy: In the first 10 months of 2024 alone, the country earned about $1.2 billion from tea exports. The diplomatic row creates new uncertainty in a market that was already feeling the impact of Sudan’s civil war.
Said Ali, a broker at Mombasa-based tea trading firm Sharan Teas, thinks that any potential economic impact on the sector would be offset in the long run by growth in new export markets. As of February 2024, Kenya shipped tea to 58 export destinations, compared to 48 a year earlier. “It’s a concern, but we’ve been seeing strong growth in markets like Chad and South Sudan,” he said. “Even in traditional markets like the UK and India, demand for Kenyan tea has remained strong.”
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